Satellite statistics

The Archdruid mentioned last night that there's a chance of a satellite falling on our heads. In Burton's absence (he was off counting the frequency of number plates containing the characters "DU11" or something), I took it upon myself to do some research, and it turns out that there's a 1 in 3200 chance that it'll fall on someone's head between now and the end of October.

I got to thinking: what if that someone is me? 1 in 3200 sounds small, but I've only got one me, and I'm rather fond of it. And what would the impact of my loss be on the Community? Apart from a ruddy great hole in the Moot House roof, obviously.

And then I thought some more. And did more calculations. And given that there are, by my reckoning, 51 days left, including today but excluding Sundays (I don't know much about theodicy, but would God allow such an accident on His Own day? Surely not), between now and the end of October, there's a 1 in 62 chance of my getting hit on any particular day. And that's about the same as the fatality rate I found on the Interweb  bring quoted for BASE jumping. Which, I think we can agree, is pretty scary.

I mentioned this to Mrs Hnaef, and, for some reason, she's currently trying to buy me a parachute on Amazon. If only I could get her to take these issues seriously.