It's probably a bit late now, but.
The concept of "growth" has become an idol. I heard someone expressing shock that by 2015 the income of British families will be about the same as in 2001. And I thought to myself - wasn't it going to happen one day? Constantly improving conditions couldn't go on forever.
The greatest lie of the 1990s in British politics - "Things can only get better". Things were already getting worse before the last election, as the boom days of cheap money driving bank profits, and bank bonuses providing copious tax income, went - and the debt racked up.
But there's no reason why things should always get better. As the resources of the world become scarcer, and the population grows, the days of constant expansion have to end. Yes, that's Malthusian and Malthus has always been wrong in the past, but we're pushing some of the limits now - until we can start to exploit Mars. The oil is running out, coal fills the atmosphere with carbon dioxide and renewables are rubbish.
And Europe has lived on a dream for too long - governments pumping in money to keep the idol of "growth" going. Like the companies who, only a few years ago, would be told by those who claimed to be experts that they weren't borrowing enough money.
Goodness knows, I'm no fan of the current government. But maybe they just can't tell the real truth. The day's going to have to come when we realise that the old way doesn't work any more. The world is running out of stuff, and we can't consume it forever. It's been a long party for the West. But now it's gonna be a nasty hangover. And "hair of the dog" may sound enticing, but it's never a long-term solution. It's gonna be bad, and it's gonna last a long while.
Still, mustn't grumble.
I would posit that growth is a natural and necessary consequence of population growth.
ReplyDeleteIf the population continues to grow and the consumption stays static, then overall the economy will shrink per capita and we all have to do with less - which is not necessarily a bad thing.
CB I'd agree but the telling people they'll have to have less (or "allowing living standards to decline" as whoever's not in power would put it) is not a popular message. Maybe we're not yet mature enough for democracy.
ReplyDeleteIf more of us made do with less, and thus saved more, perhaps we'd have money available for growth.
ReplyDeleteSo - making do with less can also feed growth, as not all will make do with less (if that's not too convoluted).
It seems blindingly obvious to me that never-ending growth is simply not possible on a planet with finite resources. "Economic growth" is the result of two factors: 1) Increasing population resulting in increasing demand resulting in increased prices for basic commodities, and 2) Increased money supply to pay the increased prices.
ReplyDeleteThe only way one nation can experience real economic growth is if it comes att he cost of someone else's economic decline. Currently some economies in Asia are growing in real terms, and in Europe we are paying for that.
Perhaps this is the beginning of some justice in that Britain and other Western European nations became wealthy by asset-stripping Asia, Africa and Latin America. The wheel is turning, as it inevitably had to.
...and Proud Mary is still burning.
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