Friday, 29 March 2013

A more accurate weather forecast

A fascinating insight into the minds of the Met Office and the (till now secret) 3-month forecast they produced last spring - favouring a drier than average outlook, just before the wettest three months in history.

The Met Office says the forecast was not wrong, just probabilistic. Which is a great way of covering up the computational equivalent of sticking a pin in a list of horses.

I would therefore like to offer up my own forecast for the next 3 months.

Temperatures in April-June will, on average, be warmer than January-March. Chances are there will be less snow than in the first three months of this year. The warmest day will be pretty warm, but colder than Death Valley in midsummer.

There is a 50% chance that it will be warmer than normal, and a 50% chance that it will be cooler. Whatever it is, there is a 100% chance of a climate scientist telling us it's due to global warming, or at least of the media reporting it that way.

There is a 100% chance of the days getting longer through to late June, at which point I'm fairly sure they'll start shortening again.

Rain will mostly fall down, if it fails. Bears in the woods will do what comes naturally.

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